China is Not a Threat

As promised - a guest post.
Jan Saxhaug is a friend, classmate, and Rosenthal Fellow. He'll be interning with Senator Mark Udall this summer in DC. Just like I put up my Op-Ed the other day, Jan was nice enough to share his Op-Ed on the myths surrounding the rise of China (it's a little better than mine was...heh).
Drink it in and leave some comments!

China is Not a Threat

Recent opinion polls conducted by Gallup indicate an increasing paranoia amongst the U.S. populace regarding relations with China. This paranoia is perpetuated by three myths: China’s economic superiority, its military dominance, and the belief that its communist government is not conducive to peace.  These misconceptions are exaggerated by rhetoric from politicians such as Mitt Romney.  Romney often targets China as an economic, military, and political rival. In an op-ed written for The Wall Street Journal in February, Romney stated that, “the dawn of a Chinese century—and the end of an American one—is not inevitable. America possesses inherent strengths that grant us a competitive advantage over China and the rest of the world.”  This type of rhetoric frames the public debate around China in a competitive way, and the ramifications of such as attitude are far reaching, both domestically and internationally. For public misconceptions to change and U.S. – Chinese relations to improve, the rhetoric first needs to change from competitive to cooperative, and China’s economic growth, military power, and political stability need to be embraced.

Myth #1: China is the leading economic power in the world.

The current rhetoric has led to some troublesome misconceptions about China’s growth.  According to the Gallup poll, 53% of Americans see China as the leading economy in the world.  Politicians have capitalized on this by discussing U.S. – Chinese relations in a way that indicates this is a zero-sum game. It is true that China’s economic growth over the past 30 years has been astounding.  Since Deng Xiaoping began his economic reforms, China has seen its GDP soar, with growth hovering around 10% over the past decade.  However, China’s growth is not threatening to the U.S. In 2010 the U.S. GDP was still three times larger than China’s, and with1.13 billion people, China’s per capita income pales in comparison. Ultimately, China’s rapid growth, while extraordinary, is in line with other emerging markets, and due to the law diminishing returns is bound to level out in the near future. 

Comparisons aside, China is firmly emplaced as a global leader. China’s economy is so inherently tied to the rest of the world that conflict is highly unlikely.  Prominent political scientists such as Bruce Russett argue that economically advanced nations will view the cost/benefit ratio of war with other developed nations as extremely unattractive. As a result, developing nations will make rational decisions allowing them to continue their trajectory of growth.  It could be argued further that competition between the U.S. and China should not be feared; rather, it should be embraced.  As China’s population is lifted from poverty, vast new global markets will begin to open, increasing economic interconnectedness, and reducing the chances of armed conflict even further.

Myth #2: China’s military growth is a threat to U.S. national security.

51% of American adults view China’s military strength as a threat to U.S. national security. Prominent Realist scholar John Mearsheimer would explain this phenomenon as the tragedy of great power politics, which pits states against each other in a constant struggle for power at the other’s expense. This theory may have held during the Cold War, but times have changed. China is not building a military with the intent of overtaking the U.S. On the contrary, according to a recent essay in Foreign Affairs by Henry Kissinger, China’s efforts to expand its military capabilities are consistent with a growing world power.  In fact, he goes on to explain, what would be more alarming is if China chose not to increase its military capacity. Furthermore, China’s military spending, while high, still pales in comparison to the U.S., and its strategy is largely defensive and asymmetric in nature. Stephen Walt, another prominent realist from Harvard, would agree. He argues that the world is shifting towards multi-polarity, and the traditional view of China – U.S. relations does not work anymore because it ignores the evolving nature of global affairs. 

The bottom line is China has a right to maintain a military that is in line with its growing global influence, and to that end it has begun to play an increasing role in international humanitarian efforts. The U.S. has been the dominant power in Southeast Asia for the past 60 years. It is only natural that as China gains more global influence, that it try to bring more balance to its own backyard. Make no mistake, the U.S. is smart to “pivot” its strategy to Southeast Asia, but it does not want to force allies in Southeast Asia to choose sides. Political rhetoric and token deployments of U.S. troops may do just that.

Myth #3:  China’s government is not conducive to peace.

China’s communist regime has had its share of problems, but if it has been anything it has been stable.  China is on the dawn of a new five-year plan that will usher in a large-scale changeover of the power structure.  The Politburo and Standing Committee will receive a fresh batch of politicians that have grown up in a time of peace, and prosperity.  Liberal scholars have promoted the concept of the democratic peace, but China seems to be bending the rules, as their largely autocratic system of governance has brought on a period of great prosperity.  China still has its problems with a large, impoverished rural populace, and it is important for the U.S. to keep pressure on China for its human rights record.  But it is time to accept China for what it is: an autocratic system with a track record of recent success and a plan for the future. 

The public debate on China generally focuses on three areas: Economic competition, military growth, and China’s lack of a modern democracy.  More often than not, these three dimensions are framed in a negative light.  For U.S. – China relations to improve, the fundamental basis of the debate needs to change.  China needs to be embraced as an economic and military partner, and the U.S. needs to accept China’s government for what it is.