36 Days PLUS

After posting the previous entry, it sparked a conversation in the comments of Facebook. It was suggested that I amend '36 days' with my additional inputs...but then I just kept writing more in response to additional questions/comments. So I thought that it maybe deserved its own additional entry. As always, thoughts and comments (either here or on Facebook) are highly encouraged. Also, on a side note, I hope to have a few 'guest posts' soon from other students' assignments!


In terms of whether or not I think Iran is a 'rational actor':
yes. as we all should.
The argument was frequently made that Kim Jong Il was crazy. I don't subscribe to that myself but I've certainly heard the argument. The Iranian regime is working towards goals that put it at odds with the Western powers certainly, however that in no way means they're irrational. ...IMO.

Regarding what Iran's main goals/core values might be (and again, I'm no 'Iran expert'):

I think that the majority of the Iranian people (granted the power of the 'Iranian people' vs the Iranian government might be negligible) want economic stability and opportunities. They want to do better than their parents did, that kind of thing. Middle classes all over the world seem to be remarkably similar. The Iranian government wants several things ranging from regional hegemony to security to access to the same opportunities for prosperity that other nations enjoy. The way to accomplish what both of these groups want is for Iran to stop enriching uranium to the 20% level. This is right around 9/10 of the way to weapons grade and that is - and has been - a redline for the P5+1 for as long as I can remember. 

Another step towards being reintegrated into the global economy - which would invariably achieve Iran's goals - is to sign 

the NPT's Additional Protocol and allow further inspections by the IAEA of their facilities. There have been several deals on the table allowing for economic ties between the West and Iran plus the provision of the medical isotopes they say they want, plus technological expertise and assistance in their pursuit of nuclear power. It has truly been all spelled out for them before and they haven't taken advantage. Granted all of this might be an argument against their rationality - but what that means is that they either want nuclear weapons (and therefore sanctions are completely warranted) or we somehow haven't found the right mix of carrots to offer...or there is simply too little trust between the parties to move forward. Hopefully its just a trust issue and diplomacy will work to build that...

In response to a question regarding regional hegemony, zero-sum games, and sanctions:

The deals ('deals' being different from sanctions) that were laid out in the past would have allowed for Iran to truly become a technological and energy hegemon in the area, IMO, rivaling Saudi Arabia. The nuclear technology assistance that we had on the table previously was relatively remarkable and would have more than likely allowed Iran to become a nuclear energy exporter. Unfortunately, the trust necessary was not there. If Iran doesn't trust us (because in many ways when they negotiate with the P5+1 they're just negotiating with us), then they won't send their enriched uranium to Russia (via Turkey). Why would they do that if they feel that we aren't going to hold up our end of the deal...? That's where we've been in the past and, honestly, if I were in Iran's shoes, I'd feel the same trepidation with dealing with the West. Additionally, the nuclear power program was much more popular in the past with the people of Iran. Again, assuming that they only want a power program (not a weapons program - and that's certainly debatable) the timing might be better now than ever before. While we are going through an election which will, unfortunately raise the pugnacious rhetoric, they are also going through an election. Ahmadinejad is out and his party is so tainted as to not have any of them get approved to run. Inflation is high. The Iranian economy as a whole is starting to feel the pressure of the sanctions so much that even Iranian officials are saying they have bite. So things should change - at least a little. Granted the Ayatollah is still in command, hence the title 'Supreme Leader' but I am still reasonably optimistic. We were finally able to get Japan to stop importing Iranian oil and I'm sure we're still working on India and China (although, IMO China is a lost cause on this issue). Plus, we have new financial sanctions which is what was needed all along. Rereading your comment, I don't think this actually answers your question regarding Iran's resilience + and the zero sum-ness. I think that the sanctions are starting to change their calculus on the black-and-white nature of the issue. Also, I don't think it hurts that our navies have actually worked together recently on the issue of piracy. Common ground and trust (with continued pressure) is needed to bring Iran in. This should be the end game. They're a big enough country and have influence already that if we could regain them as an ally in the region, it would be remarkable what we could accomplish. Granted an 'ally' is probably wishful thinking...one thing at a time...but, with our assistance and they're acquiescence on the 20% thing plus Obama and his harder line on Israel, I think that there might be unprecedented space for compromise.